Strong end-use demand resilience drives significant increase in iron ore prices [SMM Commentary]

Today, Dalian iron ore futures surged significantly, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 763.5 yuan/mt, up 3.67% for the day. Traders showed a strong willingness to sell. Steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, as the rapid price increase made acceptance difficult. The market transaction atmosphere was average. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 745-750 yuan/mt, up 25-30 yuan/mt from the previous day. In the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 760-763 yuan/mt, up 20-25 yuan/mt from the previous day.

From today's industrial data, the apparent demand slightly decreased, aligning with seasonal patterns. Inventory experienced a minor destocking, far exceeding market expectations. End-use consumption remained stronger-than-usual during the off-season, with demand resilience exceeding expectations, providing strong support for prices. Additionally, the "anti-cut-throat competition" campaign has sparked heightened market expectations for favorable policies at the important meeting in July. Under the combined influence of these factors, iron ore prices surged significantly. Considering the potential accumulation of correction risks due to the recent rapid price increase, cautious operation is advised.

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